Borrowing Costs and Housing Supply Impacting the GTA Real Estate Market


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TRREB Calls for Longer Amortization Periods and More Flexible Stress Test

TORONTO, Sept. 02, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — There were 5,627 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) MLS® System in August 2022, representing a year-over-year dip of 34.2 per cent – a lesser annual rate of decline compared to the previous four months. The August sales result also represented a month-over-month increase compared to July.

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Sales represented a higher share of new listings compared to the previous three months. If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead. On a year-over-year basis, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9 per cent and the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 0.9 per cent to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.

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“While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs. There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

“The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) should weigh in on whether the current stress test remains applicable. Is it reasonable to test home buyers at two percentage points above the current elevated rates, or should a more flexible test be applied that follows the interest rate cycle? In addition, OSFI should consider removing the stress test for existing mortgage holders who want to shop for the best possible rate at renewal rather than forcing them to stay with their existing lender to avoid the stress test. This is especially the case when no additional funds are being requested,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

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“There are other issues beyond borrowing costs impacting housing affordability in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The ability to bring on more supply is the longer-term challenge. However, we are moving in the right direction on this front. The strong mayor proposal from the province coupled with the recent commitment from Toronto Mayor John Tory to expand ownership and rental housing options are examples of this. TRREB looks forward to hearing additional initiatives from candidates vying for office in the upcoming municipal elections,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price August 1–31, 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 1,892 1,031,979 3,785 2,988 999,510 4,212
Rest of GTA (“905”) 3,735 1,103,573 6,752 5,561 1,108,184 6,403
GTA 5,627 1,079,500 10,537 8,549 1,070,201 10,615

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TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type August 1–31, 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416 905 Total 416 905 Total
Detached 511 2,084 2,595 1,648,298 1,313,839 1,379,700
Yr./Yr. % Change -26.0% -30.3% -29.5% -1.7% -3.7% -3.1%
Semi-Detached 159 367 526 1,127,429 942,628 998,490
Yr./Yr. % Change -29.6% -28.7% -29.0% -7.3% -1.1% -3.4%
Townhouse 182 753 935 913,410 897,140 900,307
Yr./Yr. % Change -44.0% -35.9% -37.7% 0.4% 3.7% 2.9%
Condo Apartment 1,028 479 1,507 736,940 656,339 711,321
Yr./Yr. % Change -40.6% -40.5% -40.6% 2.6% 6.0% 3.6%
August 2022 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI
  Composite (All Types) Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Townhouse Apartment
TRREB Total 8.85% 6.45% 8.38% 11.79% 17.87%
Halton Region 1.66% 0.62% 1.47% 3.46% 11.38%
Peel Region 10.65% 9.59% 8.70% 13.17% 19.44%
City of Toronto 9.76% 4.99% 7.23% 15.18% 17.61%
York Region 11.52% 9.12% 13.28% 15.45% 20.83%
Durham Region 6.99% 6.39% 7.16% 11.66% 18.31%
Orangeville 8.72% 7.20% 8.71% 17.65% 27.97%
South Simcoe County1 9.30% 9.03% 10.90% 12.10% 20.73%
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board         
1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth      

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Please note the methodology used to calculate MLS® HPI has been changed. For more information, click HERE.

Year-to-Date Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price August 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 21,231 1,165,794 41,772 30,359 1,042,507 45,742
Rest of GTA (“905”) 36,444 1,258,251 76,482 57,536 1,089,770 80,393
GTA 57,675 1,224,216 118,254 87,895 1,073,445 126,135
YTD TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type August 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416 905 Total 416 905 Total
Detached 5,748 19,894 25,642 1,860,675 1,522,968 1,598,670
Yr./Yr. % Change -28.6% -38.3% -36.4% 9.9% 15.0% 14.4%
Semi-Detached 1,939 3,404 5,343 1,421,261 1,109,189 1,222,442
Yr./Yr. % Change -30.3% -36.4% -34.3% 11.1% 19.5% 16.6%
Townhouse 2,128 7,590 9,718 1,060,987 1,006,280 1,018,260
Yr./Yr. % Change -36.6% -36.6% -36.6% 14.5% 19.8% 18.6%
Condo Apartment 11,262 5,199 16,461 792,778 721,792 770,358
Yr./Yr. % Change -29.6% -29.0% -29.4% 13.0% 21.2% 15.3%

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Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Seasonally Adjusted TRREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1  
         
  Sales Month-over-Month % Chg. Average Price Month-over-Month % Chg.
August ’21 9,413 -3.1 % $1,117,762 2.7 %
September ’21 9,311 -1.1 % $1,140,007 2.0 %
October ’21 9,925 6.6 % $1,155,104 1.3 %
November ’21 9,335 -5.9 % $1,181,226 2.3 %
December ’21 8,983 -3.8 % $1,210,375 2.5 %
January ’22 8,645 -3.8 % $1,272,097 5.1 %
February ’22 9,163 6.0 % $1,285,129 1.0 %
March ’22 7,876 -14.0 % $1,252,680 -2.5 %
April ’22 6,631 -15.8 % $1,204,076 -3.9 %
May ’22 6,074 -8.4 % $1,172,093 -2.7 %
June ’22 5,780 -4.8 % $1,138,924 -2.8 %
July ’22 5,296 -8.4 % $1,107,613 -2.7 %
August ’22 5,885 11.1 % $1,130,463 2.1 %
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment. 1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.

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READ THE FULL REPORT.

Media Inquiries:
Genevieve Grant, Manager, Public Affairs genevieve.grant@trreb.ca 416-443-8159

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board with more than 68,000 residential and commercial professionals connecting people, property and communities.

www.trreb.ca/

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