Currencies move sideways, forint softens as investors assess 2023 outlook
BUDAPEST — Hungary’s forint eased
slightly on Monday, while its peers were stable in Central
Europe as investors assessed 2023 prospects after a tumultuous
2022 when inflation soared to double-digits, and central banks
ramped up interest rates.
Central Europe’s currencies diverged in 2022, with the crown
faring the best with a 3% gain after its central bank started
market interventions in May to prevent a plunge in the currency.
The Czech bank ended its rate hikes just as global central
banks started tightening. The Hungarian and Polish central banks
are also holding their respective rates now, with the Polish
central bank the first to have a rate meeting in the new year in
the region on Wednesday.
“We forecast the NBP to leave rates unchanged at +6.75%, in
line with consensus expectations,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
“We also do not expect significant changes to the NBP’s
guidance, and expect the Council and Governor Glapinski to
reiterate the dovish guidance for rate stability.”
On Monday, Poland’s zloty was flat versus the
euro. It lost 2% in 2022, outperforming the Hungarian forint
which depreciated by more than 7% last year amid
Budapest’s disputes with the European Union over rule-of-law
issues that have held up funds from Brussels.
The forint was down 0.2% at 401 to the euro in thin
mid-morning trade on Monday.
“The beginning of 2023 on the domestic currency market
should start calmly. The EUR/PLN exchange rate is moving around
the level of 4.68 and remains in a sideways trend with limits at
4.6624 and 4.7070, respectively,” Bank Millennium said.
The first PMI data from the region on Monday showed that
manufacturing slumps in Poland and the Czech Republic eased
slightly in December although activity remained deep in negative
territory, with high prices cutting demand and firms reducing
staff in response, signaling a difficult year ahead.
Hungary’s seasonally-adjusted PMI jumped to 63.1 in December
from a revised 56.0 in November, remaining an outlier in the
region, as new orders were strong in December. But the Hungarian
economy is also slowing sharply, even though the government
hopes it can still grow by 1.5%.
CEE SNAPSHO AT
MARKETS T 1030
Latest Previou Daily Change
bid close change in 2023
Note: calcula 1800
daily ted CET
Latest Previou Daily Change
close change in 2023
.PX Prague 1209.76 1201.73 +0.67% +0.67%
.BUX Budapest 43568.2 43793.7 -0.51% -0.51%
.WIG20 Warsaw <.wig20>
.BETI Buchares 11663.5 11663.5 +0.00% +0.00%
t 3 3
.SBITO Ljubljan <.sbito p a>
.CRBEX Zagreb <.crbex>
.BELEX Belgrade <.belex>
.SOFIX Sofia <.sofix>
Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs Bund change
3×6 6×9 9×12 3M
Note: are for
(Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague
and Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Editing by Louise Heavens)
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