Granderson: Politics won’t ever be the identical if Democrats exchange Iowa caucuses with South Carolina

Every presidential election 12 months, when the pundits begin buzzing in regards to the Democrats’ nominee for president earlier than Black voters have weighed in, that’s quite a bit like adorning for Thanksgiving — simply one thing to do till the primary occasion.

Iowa and New Hampshire — each greater than 90% white — can solely provide momentum to a presidential hopeful. The lion’s share of delegates come from districts with the best focus of Democrats, and people districts are typically closely populated by Black individuals. The final particular person to safe the nomination with out Black assist was Michael Dukakis, and he received solely 10 states within the basic election. Pretty positive nobody desires to repeat that.

President Biden definitely doesn’t. This week he proposed, and the Democratic National Committee agreed, to shuffle the order of nominating contests in order that South Carolina holds the primary main, adopted by Nevada and New Hampshire, then Georgia after which Michigan. That lineup empowers a unique demographic.

While liberals in Iowa and New Hampshire are most likely upset to study they may now not kick off main season, the reality is the method ought to start the place many of the Democrats are. That’s to not pooh-pooh the facility of these two states. Since 1972 solely three candidates secured the nomination with out successful at the least considered one of them — George McGovern, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden. But quite a bit has modified over 50 years, and the progressive celebration has been gradual to replicate that change, one thing Biden alluded to whereas expressing his assist of the brand new schedule: “Black voters in particular have been the backbone of the Democratic Party but have been pushed to the back of the early primary process.”

Elevating South Carolina to first whereas including Nevada to second (alongside New Hampshire) not solely will increase minority participation within the early levels of the first but in addition reshapes candidate speaking factors and ensures the problems Latino and Black voters care most about aren’t handled as garnish.

This can also be a possibility for minority voters to have higher affect on how the media talks about candidates. Think about it: President Clinton nicknamed himself the “comeback kid” after ending second in New Hampshire, however had the first began in additional numerous states, Clinton most certainly would have entered New Hampshire as the favourite. He earned roughly 80% of the Black vote within the South on Super Tuesday, all however vanquishing Paul Tsongas, who had completed first in New Hampshire.

And in fact there’s Biden himself, who many thought was accomplished after disappointing showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. He not solely went on to obtain probably the most votes in American historical past, but in addition had considered one of historical past’s most profitable midterms for a sitting president. His marketing campaign was by no means “done.” It’s simply that the pundits began opining in regards to the favourite candidates earlier than the “backbone of the Democratic Party” had a say.

That’s modified.

Now comes the enjoyable half.

If Biden decides to not search reelection, the sphere should give attention to courting Latino and Black voters in the beginning of the method, versus later. Candidates who emerge victorious from South Carolina and Nevada received’t simply have buzz however a major variety of delegates. That helps with fundraising and media protection.

Because of the schedule change, a unique type of candidate could emerge. Someone who should handle points corresponding to immigration past the identical outdated drained platitudes but in addition with out alienating working-class white voters. When the primary two states within the nominating season are greater than 90% white, it’s simpler to kick off a marketing campaign with out mentioning systemic racism. Now there must be no marketing campaign with out antiracism being a part of a candidate’s platform.

The gamers could finally be the identical, however with the foundations’ change, the sport may be very totally different.

@LZGranderson