Polish zloty outperforms regional peers; Latam FX muted

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The Polish zloty outperformed central

European currencies on Thursday after the central bank governor

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said policy would stay conservative, while global recession

worries saw Latin American currencies make muted moves against a

weaker dollar.

The zloty held on to the day’s gains against the

euro, last up 0.2%. The central bank on Wednesday left the

policy rate unchanged at 6.75% for the third month in a row.

Governor Adam Glapinski said inflation was expected to start

declining in March or April but that policy would stay

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conservative.

Other central European currencies fell, with Hungary’s

forint sliding 1.4% as expectations of stubborn

inflation fueled fears of real interest rates falling deeper

into negative territory.

In Latam, currency moves were more muted with Brazil’s real

up 0.2%. The Senate approved on Wednesday a

constitutional amendment to increase the government spending

cap, raising it by 145 billion reais ($27.8 billion) for each

year, lesser than the 175 billion reais initially proposed.

Late on Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank held its key rate

at 13.75%, as expected.

“We maintain our expectation that (Brazil’s central bank) is

most likely sitting on their hands throughout 23H1,” said

Rabobank strategists.

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“If the new administration maintains fiscal credibility and

inflation expectations do not de-anchor, then the (bank) would

start the easing cycle only by end-23Q2, until reaching 11.00%

by end-2023.”

Peruvian markets were closed for a local holiday. The sol

currency slumped on Wednesday after President Pedro

Castillo was impeached and Vice President Dina Boluarte was

sworn in.

“The lack of any true leader makes for more headwinds to

come short-term and volatility too high to make any strong

forecast,” said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA.

The Mexican peso was flat to lower after data showed

annual consumer prices rose 7.8% in the year through November,

slowing down from the previous month to reach its lowest level

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since May.

Following the data, Capital Economics now expects Mexico’s

central bank to deliver a 50 basis points increase in interest

rates this month followed by a final 25bps hike to 10.75% in

February.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Stock indexes Latest Daily %

change

MSCI Emerging Markets 970.77 1.25

MSCI LatAm 2182.62 0.5

Brazil Bovespa 108998.39 -0.06

Mexico IPC 51073.93 0.69

Chile IPSA 5202.85 -0.69

Argentina MerVal 171177.89 1.837

Colombia COLCAP 1229.65 -0.56

Currencies Latest Daily %

change

Brazil real 5.1949 0.21

Mexico peso 19.6836 -0.14

Chile peso 865 0.00

Colombia peso 4819.35 -0.05

Argentina peso 169.8700 -0.22

(interbank)

(Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea

Ricci)