U.S. dollar gains ground as investors focus on future Fed path

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NEW YORK/LONDON —

The U.S. dollar gained against the yen and the euro on

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Monday but pulled back from its highs of the day with investors

betting on a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes

going forward.

The dollar index was higher after falling 4% last

week, marking its biggest weekly drop since March 2020, after

data showing U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in

October and prompted bets for slower hikes.

While the greenback appeared to benefit earlier on Monday

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from hawkish investor readings of weekend comments from Fed

Governor Christopher Waller, it lost some ground as the session

wore on as investor hopes for slower hikes were renewed by Fed

Vice Chair Lael Brainard’s comments on Monday.

Waller said on Sunday that the Fed could now start thinking

about hiking at a slower pace but cautioned that the inflation

data was “just one data point” and that other readings are

needed to show a convincing slowing in price gains.

While Brainard emphasized in an interview with Bloomberg

that the Fed has more work to do, she signaled that it will

likely slow its tightening pace soon as it figures out how high

borrowing costs need to go and for how long in order to bring

down inflation.

“Markets here are starting to really factor in the top of

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the Fed cycle,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at

Scotiabank in Toronto, pointing to last week’s U.S. inflation

reading as solid grounds to believe it can move lower.

And he noted that Brainard’s comments boosted equity

sentiment, which dragged on the dollar on Monday.

“Now that the end the end of this tightening cycle is become

a little clearer for investors and there’s more confidence

equity markets can continue to improve that’s likely to undercut

the U.S. dollar to an extent,” he said.

“We have been looking for at least a moderation in the

dollar rally. That seems to be developing now and the scale of

moves last week does suggest that the dollar may be poised for a

bit more softness in the short run at least.”

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Investors had seen Waller’s comments as cold water on hopes

for a “rapid Fed recalibration,” said Adam Button, chief

currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto.

This had helped the dollar index, which gauges the greenback

against a basket of six other major currencies including the

euro, yen, and sterling, rise as much as 0.93% to 107.274

before it pulled back to last trade up 0.4% at 106.73.

The euro was last down 0.01% against the dollar at

$1.0342, after earlier rising to a three-month high of $1.0368.

ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that the

central bank must keep raising rates but needs to avoid

overtightening, as doing so could destroy productive capacity

and deepen an economic downturn.

Data had showed on Monday that euro zone industrial

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production rose much more than expected in September, and output

for August was revised upwards too. Economists said that may be

partly due to manufacturers front-loading production before

energy-related disruptions this winter.

Sterling fell ahead of British Chancellor Jeremy Gaunt’s

autumn statement on Thursday when he is expected to set out tax

rises and spending cuts. The pound was down 0.55% at

$1.1770, having risen 4% in the previous two sessions, touching

on Friday its highest level since late August.

Cryptocurrencies remained in turmoil after the fall of FTX.

The crypto exchange’s token was down 7.8% on the day

at $1.308, representing a 95% drop on a month-to-date basis.

Bitcoin had fallen as far as $15,784 earlier on

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Monday before recovering somewhat. It was last down 0.18% at

$16,280.

China’s onshore yuan rose to nearly a two-month

high against the dollar, coinciding with its central bank’s

official guidance and a broad lift in Chinese market sentiment

on moves to help its embattled property sector and a decision to

ease some of the country’s strict COVID-19 restrictions.

Elsewhere, the dollar was last up 0.79% against the yen

at 139.92 after earlier rising as high as 140.79.

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand

dollars regained lost ground after earlier slipping

sharply against the greenback.

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Currency bid prices at 3:27PM (2027 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

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Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar $1.0342 $1.0347 -0.01% -9.00% +$1.0368 +$1.0272

Dollar/Yen 139.9200 138.7600 +0.79% +21.48% +140.7850 +138.4000

Euro/Yen 144.71 143.69 +0.71% +11.04% +145.2200 +143.4800

Dollar/Swiss 0.9421 0.9413 +0.11% +3.31% +0.9488 +0.9406

Sterling/Dollar $1.1770 $1.1835 -0.55% -12.97% +$1.1852 +$1.1714

Dollar/Canadian 1.3295 1.3251 +0.31% +5.13% +1.3309 +1.3240

Aussie/Dollar $0.6712 $0.6707 +0.07% -7.66% +$0.6723 +$0.6664

Euro/Swiss 0.9744 0.9747 -0.03% -6.03% +0.9777 +0.9728

Euro/Sterling 0.8785 0.8742 +0.49% +4.58% +0.8822 +0.8728

NZ $0.6111 $0.6121 -0.04% -10.61% +$0.6127 +$0.6065

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.0120 9.9465 +0.67% +13.66% +10.0425 +9.9710

Euro/Norway 10.3540 10.2827 +0.69% +3.41% +10.3749 +10.2423

Dollar/Sweden 10.4638 10.3678 +0.69% +16.03% +10.4948 +10.3578

Euro/Sweden 10.8178 10.7439 +0.69% +5.75% +10.8414 +10.7256

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Joice Alves in London;

Editing by Alison Williams, Paul Simao and Lisa Shumaker)