year yields highest since 2011 before expected Fed rate hike
NEW YORK — Benchmark 10-year U.S.
Treasury yields jumped to their highest level since 2011 on
Monday as investors adjusted for the likelihood that the Federal
Reserve will hike rates higher and for longer than previously
expected as inflation remains near multi-decade highs.
Data last week showed higher-than-expected consumer prices
in August, dashing hopes that the worst of rising price
pressures may be in the past.
It also made it more likely that the Fed will hike rates by
another 75 basis points when it concludes its two-day meeting on
Wednesday. Traders are now pricing in a 77% chance of a 75 basis
points hike and a 23% likelihood of a 100 basis points increase.
Investors are grappling to determine how long the Fed will
raise rates as monetary tightening by central banks globally
also raises concerns about growth.
“They’ve been pointing to a series of rate hikes and this is
one of them, but we’re not going to hear anything this week
about when rate hikes might end,” said Jim Vogel, an interest
rate strategist at FHN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.
“Right now we’ve got a series of concerns about the global
economy, we have varying reports, but … there’s no noticeable
crash that says, oh now we have seen central banks push things
too far,” Vogel added.
Benchmark 10-year yields reached a high of
3.518%, the highest since April 2011, before falling back to
Two-year yields reached 3.961%, the highest since
November 2007, and were last 3.942%.
The closely watched yield curve between two-year and 10-year
notes inverted as far as negative 48 basis
points. An inversion in this part of the yield curve is viewed
as a reliable indicator that a recession will follow in
The Treasury will sell $12 billion in 20-year bonds on
Tuesday, and $15 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected
Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.
September 19 Monday 9:16AM New York / 1316 GMT
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
Three-month bills 3.1275 3.1948 0.028
Six-month bills 3.74 3.863 0.057
Two-year note 98-183/256 3.9422 0.083
Three-year note 98-230/256 3.8942 0.079
Five-year note 97-122/256 3.6876 0.062
Seven-year note 97-16/256 3.6067 0.045
10-year note 93-240/256 3.4788 0.032
20-year bond 94-80/256 3.7842 -0.009
30-year bond 90-152/256 3.5104 -0.009
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 37.50 -0.50
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 17.25 -0.25
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.25 0.25
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 7.00 0.00
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -30.50 0.50
(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Andrea Ricci)